POLITICAL SHIFTS IN KENYA. WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT ELECTIONS

Having been a blogger and analysed Kenyan politics for quite some time one thing is constant : Expect the unexpected.

With the 2027 elections nearing, we are already seeing key shifts in political alignments and voter’s priority. The following blog shows what is changing, what to keep an eye on and what is staying the same.

Kenya’s political amalgamations have been deeply connected to ethnic alliances and regional strong

holds. But after the 2022 elections, we have come to witness an emergent wave amongst the youth, urban voters and even parts of the diaspora. Movements like ” Hustler Nation” brought class dynamics to the forefront but voters are increasingly asking tougher questions like:

Expect 2027 to portray more fluid loyalties, as politicians struggle to maintain importance without solid track records.

Raila Odinga has been an outstanding figure in Kenyan politics for decades. Whether you vote him in or not, his absence will create a big vacuum in the opposition should he choose not to run for presidency 2027. The big question remains : Who will step up? Who will take the mantle? Names like Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua and others have been mentioned severally, but none have quite the national pull of Baba. The opposition will need a fresh, strategic and unifying face to challenge the presidential term.

RUTO’S GOVERNANCE RECORD WILL BE UNDER MICROSCOPE 

President William Ruto has been busy rolling out policies under The Bottom Up Economic Transformation Agenda. But I feel the next elections will be less manifestos and more about results.

Kenyans will be asking

Has the cost of living gone down ?

What happened to job creation for the youth ?

How has public debt been handled ?

YOUTH AND FIRST TIME VOTERS WILL SHAPE THE OUTCOME

More than 75% of the Kenyan population being less than 35 years old, the youth’s vote is not only influential but decisive. In 2022 most Kenyan youths were disengaged but online activism and frustrating cost of living are driving a renewed sense of political interest.

Expect to see:

Increased youth voter registration campaigns

More political content creators

Youth-led political candidates emerging at county levels

COALITIONS WILL BE UNPREDICTABLE 

It’s better to refer to Kenyan politics more or rather the same as chess. The pre-election period will be filled with surprise defections, new coalitions and strategic mergers. Don’t get mesmerized if once bitter rivals become bedfellows. Most of the time in Kenyan politics ideology comes after strategy.

Watch for super alliances in late 2026. That’s when the real shape of the ballot will begin to form.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT 

The next general election won’t just be about who gets elected, rather it will be a test of democratic maturity, voter awareness, and institutional credibility. With IEBC undergoing reforms and trust in public institutions being put to test, 2027 will demand not just good leadership but vigilant general public.